Muses of Murari

News on Satyam fiasco is outpouring on the Internet. Especially on Twitter. There are lot of opinions roaming all over on news channels, newspapers & Internet. There are sympathies for Mr. Ramalinga Raju flying around in tweets & blogs. And he is also shown as bad guy in newspapers! Of course, what he has done is wrong and requires punitive action. But, I feel some kind of good on his personal side, after reading his resignation letter, in which he has cleared the names of his management team out of this and also accepts complete responsibility. It is just a personal opinion.  As of now things do not look  clear regarding what exactly went wrong. May be it takes little more time, for the experts to dig deeper and give us clear picture.

My father was telling couple of weeks back, that we should be buying Satyam shares, once there are prospective buyers become visible. This happened after the infamous Maytas deal & World Bank ban on doing business with Satyam. I think my father was sniffing to the rumors that the major investors are looking to sell off. Many people had opinion it was good buy at those levels. And came the promoter share holding news. After this, I read in some blog ( I don’t remember which one), that there must be some other reason behind Maytas deal, because, on the surface, it can be  easily perceived by investors that this deal is an unnecessary at these recession times, would raise many a eyebrow, but still it was pushed actively by the management ( Mr. Raju).  The reason could not just be greediness. It must be something else.  It made sense but I pushed the idea aside for no reason.

I am not a finance guy, but I am trying to match the strings here. I could be incorrect also. I think, the figure revealed by Mr. Raju, which actually on the books but not in the bank, would match with Maytas deal amount. Though, there might not be a actual transfer of money (since, Maytas is owned by his family), but accounts would work out fine. Now, if that deal had went through, Mr. Raju would be neat & clean by this time. Unfortunately, for him, things just didn’t work out. Maytas failed, World Bank banned Satyam, his promoter share fell and his attempt to seek advice from DSP Merrill Lynch backfired. And now, the famous letter ended Mr. Raju’s IT dream (or real estate dream?).

If one would had closely focused till his reduction of promoter stake news and taken a short position on Satyam, he/she would have made a fortune of a lifetime in a single day! But, who whould have guessed things would turn this way? Had Mr. Raju released his letter today (08 Jan – BSE, NSE are closed), bears would have field day tomorrow! Had I invested following my father’s advice, my money would have been puffed out in minutes. Had the person, who bought Satyam shaares at 10 am on the ill-fated day for Satyam, abstained his temptation to make quick bucks, wouldn’t have lost almost all his money at 11 am, when Mr. Raju shocked entire Indian Industry.

Update : Looks like the strings, I tried here, d0 match.

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